Archive for the Uncategorized Category
If the Indian Budget 2012-13 Ignores Import Duty on Raw Cashews…?
What will happen if the Indian Budget 2012-13 ignores the demand for Import Tax, a ban or some kind of control on raw cashew imports? Cashew is a very small sector to the big Indian economy. So if the Government doesn’t expect a big Tax revenue through the levy of this Tax, certainly the finance [...]
Supply or Offer is Essential to Determine the Market
Because of the over-selling in the global cashew kernel till March-end/April, getting a clear picture of the market or market trends is not possible. Over-selling or over-buying usually happens during the volatile Forex conditions. For more information, please read our articles : 1) Cashew Flashback 2011. 2) Falling Rupee Fuelled Forward Contract Competition. Supply is [...]
Indian Consumer Preference Is Shifting Towards Other food Items
There is strong nervousness in the Indian cashew kernel because of slow down in the retail sales volume. According to some retailers, they have failed to determine the best buying-selling price for cashew. Consumers are hesitant to buy cashew kernel even at cost price sale. But this is not so with regards to almonds and [...]
Demand Is For Premium Quality
Both raw cashew and cashew kernel markets are now in a steady-state without much speculative activities. But the market has not yet entered a complete dull phase as there are still buyers and buying interest in premium quality and premium grading. Current kernel supply is slightly more than demand and trading volume has come down. [...]
Slight Uncertainty In Cashew Kernel
Though there is some weakness in cashew kernel, sellers are not in any kind of hurry. Buyers are confused and powerless in this sellers market due to the coming festival season. Because of this uncertainty, a few sellers are still able to sell 3%-5% above the market price for the same grading. Such sellers are [...]
Emerging Markets Are Fueling This Sensational Bullish Run
Even the bearish rumor spreaders are now totally frustrated by their inability to control the price rising movement in cashew kernel. At present, they can only try to give their point of views and powerless warnings but to the current market thinking, bearish view is nothing but a sort of useless negative mentality. So, nobody [...]
Dramatic Rise In The Indian Cashew Kernel
Sudden and dramatic increase in the Indian cashew kernel is mainly due to – 1) Strong bullish rumors in the Indonesian raw cashew market. According to rumors, prices have already crossed $2200/ton and nearing $2250/ton. 2) Significant jump in the cashew kernel forward prices, especially for September-October delivery. 3) Decrease in the stock position of [...]
More Activities In Kernel Forward Trading
Global cashew kernel buyers are now highly interested in forward contracts, especially for August, September and October shipments. They are offering attractive forward prices, which are said to be 5%-8% more than the current spot prices. Some Indian buyers are also offering incentives to postpone contracted deliveries by 4-8 weeks, so that they will have [...]
Kernel Weak On Profit Booking
Weakness in cashew kernel is mainly due to increase in production and supply. In spite of good demand, current kernel supply is said to be sufficient to meet the current Indian as well as global demand. At present, Processors are producing near maximum capacity and trying to sell as much as possible, as this the [...]
Ivorian Cashew Growers Need Support For Reforms
If the present calm trend continues in Ivory Coast and if the world community gives the same kind of support in coming years, Cote d’Ivoire may once again emerge as the hub of international commercial activities in west Africa. Country’s foreign trade is now almost normal and the main port is now ready to handle [...]
W320 Under Pressure As Higher Grades Stocks Pile Up
Ten years ago, price of W320 came almost equal to the price of W240 during the Indian festival season and buyers were not at all interested in higher grades. This year seems to be moving in the same direction. Producers and wholesalers have now piled up higher grades but retailers are placing orders for lower [...]
They Will Succeed Who Are Cautious
Both raw cashew and cashew kernel buyers should be extra cautious in this bull market. Bull trend may continue for next few days as this is a natural rise and not an artificially inflated increase. But speculators may land in trouble if they make wrong decisions on false rumors. Right now- 1) Though raw cashew [...]
Guinea-Bissau Crop Size – Another View
Title and beginning sentences of an article on net dated June 10, gives an impression that Guinea-Bissau is expecting a record harvest this year according to Government officials and the production will be a record breaking 60000 tonnes. This is the openly posted portion of the article and one has to login for the complete [...]
A Reader Replies To Our Article -”Guinea-Bissau Crop Size Is Above Average “
According to press reports, This year Guinea-Bissau may export 90000-100000 tons of raw cashew nuts. Their crop season has not yet ended but they are very enthusiastic and optimistic about their crop size. At present, even after a poor harvest, there is no immediate raw cashew shortage in India and Vietnam because of slow production [...]
Symptoms Indicate A Temporary Steadiness In Cashew Kernel
Global cashew kernel market witnessed a very strong bullish activity during past few days. Kernel prices crossed the all-time high levels despite adequate supply in some grades. But right now the market is waiting for directions. Market correction and profit booking strategy may halt the further uptrend. Symptoms such as improvement in production, south Indian [...]
Current Demand is for W320 and Lower Grades.
Even though the current cashew production has reached its peak, demand for CNSL has not come down. But in the cashew kernel market, demand is mainly for W320 and lower grades. Retailers are complaining about some consumer resistance in higher grades. Wholesalers are making W320 buying in full swing but they are not much interested [...]
Continuous Downtrend in the Indian Raw Cashew
At present, Indian raw cashew traders are struggling to find a buyer. But Indian domestic kernel prices remained unchanged because of all-round global demand. Emerging markets and side markets are now very active buyers and they are offering much higher prices for July-August commitments. Guinea-Bissau and Ivory Coast raw cashew prices may fall next week as there [...]
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Cost of Production (January 2011)
As there is no chance of big changes in the raw cashew market, no significant changes are expected in the cost of production during January 2011. Mozambique may supply cheaper raw cashewnuts but the quality may not equal to Tanzanian quality. So the production cost of W320 would be around $4.10 to $4.25/pound, in accordance [...]
Downside Pressure in Indian Cashew Kernel
Indian raw cashew resellers are facing cost related problems with their recent imports. Their import cost of quality Tanzanian raw cashew is around Rs83 to Rs85 per kilo. Even if they are ready to sell their imports without adding profits or interest, buyers are not coming near them due to totally unworkable prices. So, some [...]
Cost of Production (December 2010)
When costly Tanzanian raw cashew arrives in India, the cost of production will also rise with it. When the finished products comes out of it, the cost of W320 would be around $4.10-$4.25/pound. It may differ by few cents according to factory wise and area wise grading standards. So, the probability is that the processors [...]
Volatile Forex Market Hits Upward Phase
Even though the Indian cashew kernel market remains firm, both importers and exporters are confused over day by day Forex variations. Constant monitoring of Rupee Dollar movement is now necessary before taking any major import export decisions. Wait and watch situation has slightly slowed down the upward movement in both raw cashew and cashew kernel. [...]
Festival Sales on Full Swing
Indian retailers are now happy about increasing sales volume. Festival sales help them reap more profits. Processors are getting better prices as retailers and wholesalers are getting even better prices. This has influenced upward movement in both raw cashew and cashew kernel markets. At this point, Indians are not interested in exports even if the [...]
Indian Cashew Kernel Prices Surge
Kerala has the highest number of cashew processors in India. Any production shortage in Kerala positively impacts the kernel market. Approaching Onam festival holidays and low worker attendance in factories will reduce cashew kernel production. This has halted the bearish trend and boosted the market. But the raw cashew market is dull over the same [...]
Improvement in Cashew Kernel Supply
There is marginal improvement in supply of cashew kernels due to full scale production. Processors are trying to enhance production in this festival season and cash in on profit booking. Most of the Indian exporters are dumping their kernels in the domestic market. Thus abundant supply has halted price rise in India.
Impact of VAT Reduction in Delhi
Earlier in Delhi VAT over dry fruits was 5%. It was then increased to 12.5%. This resulted in shift of trade from Delhi to neighboring states and also VAT loss to Delhi. Because of this, the Delhi Govt is compelled to reduce VAT back to 5%. Traders are happy with the Govt decision and are [...]
